Russia will not need its fearsome state spying apparatus to work out that the way to goal in Marseille on June 11 is straight through England’s centre-backs, who were tentative and outwitted for Turkey’s first-half equaliser in an unexpectedly competitive friendly.
The same vulnerability displayed itself soon after half-time, when Turkey’s Cenk Tosun was allowed to spin on the edge of the penalty area while Gary Cahill and John Stones observed the pirouette without intervention. Eric Dier, two yards further out, also watched, which prompted Cahill, captain on the day, to direct his frustration at the side’s young holding midfielder. Yes, Dier might have stepped in to quell the threat, but the lack of authority displayed by England’s centre-backs was true to a recent pattern.
Stones, Cahill, Chris Smalling: these are the only centre-halves in Hodgson’s provisional 26-man squad. You can acknowledge the good things in the first of England’s three pre-tournament friendlies – which they won 2-1 – while also worrying about the potential for defensive calamity in France.
The last time we saw Smalling, he was pulling a Crystal Palace player down by the legs in Palace’s own-half – in a non-dangerous area, in other words – to earn himself a dismissal in the FA Cup final that raised doubts about his current state of mind.
Smalling is the best of England’s three available centre-backs and will replace Stones in the Euro 2016 starting line-up. But he can hardly feel confident about playing alongside Cahill, whose own struggles are betrayed by his habit of grappling and pulling shirts.
Sound defending has always been an article of faith for Hodgson, so the problem is not one of blindness or wishful thinking on the part of the manager.
Over the course of qualifying, Hodgson has shifted in favour of youth and attacking. He has no wish to hold his good young players back. At the same time he must be having night sweats at the thought of France, Spain or Germany slicing through his central defence.
By consent there is no discarded stopper hammering on the gate to get back in. When we scan the Premier League for a fourth name we arrive at Ryan Shawcross or Phil Jagielka, who has been left out. Adding Jagielka now would restore the usual quartet of central defenders but not raise the quality. Which is why Hodgson cited Dier as a possible auxiliary fourth centre-back.
Pining for the days when English football produced centre-halves as seamlessly as meat pies and Bovril will not improve the team’s prospects in France. Down the years, English football has always faced manpower shortages in specific areas because talent production was poorly organised.
The gaps tended to be at goalkeeper, full-back, or left-midfield. Now the deficit is to be found in the heart of England.
Intensive coaching between now and the Russia game is one hope. But a flimsy one. Team shape is the only really viable solution: and here it ought to be recognised that Dier is not a one-man Maginot Line. He alone cannot protect Smalling and Cahill, much less any back-four containing Stones, who looks mentally frazzled.
Hodgson’s selection conundrum has been how to get all his most destructive players into the side: chiefly Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Wayne Rooney and Dele Alli. This novel challenge may have to be set aside until the back of the team is set. Picking two defensive midfielders and ordering them to defend rather than gallop upfield behind Alli would take some of the pressure off Smalling and Cahill and spread a bit of realism through the rest of the line-up.
Currently, England are enthused by the idea that they can outscore any opponent. They attack en masse. Hallelujah to that, in theory. It will come to nought however if the central defence is an open road. A block of four, in that area (two centre-backs, two holding midfielders) would provide more insurance.
Neither Jack Wilshere nor Jordan Henderson is sufficiently sharp/fit to claim a starting place ahead of Danny Drinkwater, who screened so well for Leicester (and posted some healthy passing stats). Hodgson would have to make sacrifices further forward in the side. But better that than pain further down the line. This far out, England’s central defence is not viable.